SpaceX stock jumped 10.98% to $164.01 by Wednesday morning in New York, a gain of $16.22 that lifted the company to roughly $2.2 trillion, after touching $165.30 earlier in the session. The move came after a third quarter report that beat on every line and a guidance number the market had not modeled.
Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen told the earnings call that revenue in the first quarter of 2027 will land between $33 billion and $37 billion. Analysts polled by LSEG had been carrying $22.2 billion.
SpaceX stock held a $144 to $150 band for four sessions, then gapped from Tuesday’s $147.79 close to a $165.30 high on Wednesday before easing to $164.01. Source: TradingViewThe CFO Guided Q1 2027 to $33 Billion Against a $22.2 Billion Consensus
That midpoint sits 58% above where the street was, and it is the single number behind Wednesday’s move in SpaceX stock. For scale, the $35 billion midpoint for one quarter is more than double the $14.58 billion the company just reported for the third.
The quarter that guidance follows was strong enough on its own terms to justify part of the move. Revenue rose 161% to $14.58 billion, net income came in at $4.40 billion against a $1.05 billion loss a year earlier, and adjusted EBITDA rose 306% to $8.81 billion, as FinanceFeeds covered when the numbers landed. Johnsen also said about $42 billion of backlog should be recognized within the next year.
Q4 Capex of $35 Billion to $40 Billion Is Nearly Double Last Quarter
Management paired that revenue guide with a spending number of almost the same size. SpaceX expects fourth quarter capital expenditure of $35 billion to $40 billion as compute capacity comes online, against $19.59 billion in the third quarter, and nameplate compute is set to rise from 1.7 gigawatts to as much as 3 gigawatts by year end.
Nine-month capex already stands at $48.07 billion against $13.10 billion of cash from operations. Adding another $35 billion to $40 billion in one quarter means the funding question gets larger rather than smaller, even with $51.29 billion of cash and $38.56 billion of marketable securities on the balance sheet. That requirement is the clearest risk attached to SpaceX stock at $164.
Investor Takeaway
A guide 58% above consensus repriced SpaceX stock in a single session, so the forward multiple reset rather than the trailing one.
Musk Put ARR at $500 Billion to $1 Trillion by the End of 2027
Musk went considerably further than the formal guidance once the question session opened. He projected annualized recurring revenue of $500 billion to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, said SpaceX will attempt to catch both the booster and the ship on the next Starship test flight, and reaffirmed the goal of a $100 billion annualized run rate by the end of this year based on December revenue.
He also set out how the compute business will be sold to customers outside the company. SpaceX is targeting a roughly even split between its own use and external cloud customers, and will favor short-term agreements because it expects the value of compute per watt to rise as models improve. Chief operating officer Gwynne Shotwell said the company aims to launch from its new Louisiana spaceport by 2029.
Merger Talk Is Doing Part of the Work in SpaceX Stock
The other catalyst behind the move in SpaceX stock is the possible combination with Tesla. Musk called a merger “a good idea” and confirmed both boards have formed independent committees at shareholder request, while saying the outcome is not certain, which is the same split Reuters found across Wall Street on Wednesday.
Prediction markets had already moved ahead of the confirmation, with Kalshi pricing a combination at 56% before May 2027 on Monday. The structural questions are unchanged, including the premium Tesla holders would need to accept, and the only Musk consolidation that has actually closed remains the absorption of xAI in February before the listing.
SpaceX Stock Is 21% Above Its IPO and Still Below October’s High
At $164.01 SpaceX stock sits about 21% above the $135 IPO price from 12 June and 41.57% higher over three months. The shares remain below the $176 area touched on 6 October, so Wednesday’s move is a recovery of the selloff that took the shares into the $140s last week rather than a new high.
The swings are not unusual for a stock carrying a one-year beta of 4.85. SpaceX stock has travelled from about $140 on 15 October to $165.30 on Wednesday, an 18% range inside five sessions, which is why the guidance matters more than any single session. Tesla reports after Wednesday’s close, putting the other half of any merger arithmetic in front of the market within hours.
Investor Takeaway
SpaceX stock is up almost 11% on guidance rather than on the quarter, so the risk sits in whether Q1 2027 delivers the $33 billion floor.