The Bitcoin price is set to close its best quarter in nine years on Wednesday, and it will still be down for the year. Per onchain data from TadingvView, Bitcoin trades near $82,985 at press time, down 0.57% on the day, leaving it up about 42% since 1 July after losses of 22.2% in the first quarter and 14.09% in the second.
Both things are true at once because the arithmetic of percentages is unforgiving. A 22% fall followed by a 14% fall takes a lot of undoing, and even a 42% rebound leaves the bitcoin price roughly 5% lower than where it started 2026.
Bitcoin spent ten weeks going nowhere before the week to 21 August delivered almost the entire quarterly gain. Source: TradingViewBitcoin Is Up About 42% Since 1 July, and One Week in August Did Most of It
The quarter was not a steady climb. The Bitcoin price traded in a band between roughly $62,000 and $66,000 for the whole of July and most of August, then moved violently in a single week. It ran from about $62,800 in early August to around $80,000, a gain of roughly 25% on the month, as more than $220 million of short positions were liquidated. Treasury buybacks pulling long yields down, a softer dollar and $1.9 billion of ETF inflows in the week to 21 August, the strongest week since October 2025, did the work.
September has been a range rather than a trend, with the bitcoin price oscillating between about $75,000 and $88,000 and finishing the month softer. That leaves the bitcoin price closing the quarter well off its September high. It is down 4.17% over the past week. Strip out those few days in late August and the quarter is close to flat, which matters for anyone reading the headline number as evidence of sustained demand.
A 42% Q3 Against a Q3 Average of 8.6%
Set against history, this is an outlier. CoinGlass quarterly data puts the average third quarter for the bitcoin price at 8.63% and the median at just 2.29%, so a 42% gain is roughly five times the typical Q3. Only one third quarter has been stronger, 2017’s 80.41%.
On that table, it is the second-best Q3 on record, though the claim comes with a caveat worth holding until Wednesday. Third place belongs to 2013 at 40.6%, and the gap is thin. Working back from the quarter’s opening level near $58,420, bitcoin needs to hold above roughly $82,100 to stay ahead of 2013, which leaves about 1% of cushion at Tuesday’s price. A soft Wednesday would make this the third-best Q3 rather than the second.
Bitcoin’s 42% third quarter ranks second in fourteen years, though 2013’s 40.6% sits close enough that Wednesday’s close could still cost it the position. Source: CoinGlass · Chart: FinanceFeedsInvestor Takeaway
Almost the entire quarterly gain arrived in the single week to 21 August, and the bitcoin price has gone sideways to lower since.
Still About $29,000 Below Where It Traded a Year Ago
The annual picture cuts the other way. The bitcoin price is down 26.05% over twelve months, about $29,150 below where it stood a year ago, and down 5.17% year to date. A strong quarter has not repaired the damage from a weak one.
Ether tells a similar story more sharply than the bitcoin price does. CoinGlass has ETH up 70.2% in the third quarter after falling 29.26% in the first and 25.28% in the second, which is a larger rebound from a deeper hole. In both cases, the quarter rewarded anyone who bought in July and did little for anyone holding since last autumn.
$6.4 Billion of ETF Money Came Back in Q3 After Leaving in Q2
The flow data explains the turn. Cumulative net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs stood at $51.15 billion on 30 June and reached $57.58 billion by 28 September, a net $6.43 billion added across the quarter, according to SoSoValue. The second quarter ran the other way, shedding close to $5 billion.
The buying clustered rather than spread evenly. Bitcoin ETFs took in $999 million on 21 September alone, part of a stretch that pushed 2026 net flows back into positive territory after a bruising first half, and one week alone ranked as the biggest in a year. Total ETF net assets now sit at $107.82 billion, equal to 6.42% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
Q4 Averages +77%, and This One Starts With a 5.28% Ten-Year
History says the fourth quarter is Bitcoin’s best. CoinGlass puts the Q4 average at 77.07% and the median at 47.73%, comfortably the strongest of the four. The setup facing the bitcoin price this time is less accommodating.
The US ten-year Treasury yield is at 5.28%, holding at levels last seen in 2007, and it has now risen above the S&P 500 earnings yield for the first time in roughly 25 years. A risk-free return at that level sets a high bar for the bitcoin price, which pays nothing. Crude has eased, with WTI near $90 and Brent around $103 after both fell more than 2% on Tuesday, which removes one inflationary pressure, and Friday’s US jobs report is the next scheduled test. FinanceFeeds set out the week’s catalysts in more detail on Sunday.
Investor Takeaway
Bitcoin’s fourth quarter has averaged 77.07% historically, though this one opens against a 5.28% ten-year Treasury yield that competes directly with a non-yielding asset.