While big box stores have not wiped out all mom and pop hardware, gardening, and outdoor furniture stores, they have taken over large parts of those industries.
Independent Garden Centers (IGCs) have fallen well behind Lowe’s and Home Depot, according to the 2025 Axiom Gardening Outlook Study.
Gardeners tend to buy more frequently at big-box stores, the data shows.
“This is where our garden centers need to sit up in their chairs and pay attention,” explains Axiom Marketing CEO Mike Reiber. “Home Depot is number one in plants and supplies.”
When asked where they bought most of their garden supplies in 2024, 32% of respondents said Home Depot. Lowe’s and Walmart were second and third place, capturing a respective 19% and 17%. Independent garden centers ranked fourth at 12%, above grocery stores, online sales, farm stores and hardware stores.
On the plant side, Home Depot came out on top again, with 34% of respondents saying they bought most of their garden plants from the big-box store in 2024. Lowe’s lagged far behind at 16% but was followed closely by IGCs at 15%.
That has created a challenging market which has led to Earl May Garden Centers, which was founded in 1919, to close seven of its 28 stores.
Earl May closing 25% of its stores
Earl May Nursery & Garden Center will permanently close its St. Joseph store Sept. 21, ending the company’s nearly century-long retail presence in the Missouri city, reported News Press Now.
Store employee Holly Cechovic confirmed the closure to the newspaper.
“They’re closing seven of their stores,” she said. “We’re the last one in Missouri.”
Earl May grew from a humble start.
“In the beginning, a seed and nursery catalog was sent to only a handful of people. However, at the height of the catalog, over 2 million copies were distributed throughout the United States. Originally, along with seed, Earl May also sold baby chickens, tires, batteries, radios, paint, shoes and clothing, mostly by mail,” the company shared on its website.
In addition to the Missouri closure, the company will shut down six locations in Nebraska, according to the Columbus Telegram.
The company’s website still shows 28 operating locations and makes no mention of the shutdowns. A request for comment was made through the company’s corporate Contact Us page.
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Local gardening stores have struggled
RTM Nexus CEO Dominick Miserandino thinks that chains like Earl May are fighting a very challenging battle
“Earl May closing seven stores isn’t a surprise—it’s what happens when you try to fight Home Depot and Lowe’s on their own turf,” he told TheStreet. “A 28-store regional chain simply cannot match the buying power or prices of national giants.”
He also noted that the big box leaders have a convenience advantage as well.
“Consumers are already at Lowe’s or Home Depot for three other errands, so grabbing soil and plants there is just easier. Local history and friendly service don’t pay high overhead when foot traffic dries up,” he added.
IGCs, however, do have advantages they can lean into in order to maintain share, according to the Axiom Study.
“Independent garden centers had the edge on plant quality at 30% compared to Home Depot’s 25%. Those standings remained the same when respondents answered where they found the “most knowledgeable associates to answer your gardening questions.”
That’s something IGCs can build on, according to Reiber.
“I believe that the independent garden centers need to explain why their plant quality is higher,” Reiber says. He notes that if IGCs are grower-retailers, they should let customers know their plant material is grown on site. If not, “Tell them about your grower and what is important to them. Tell them what the rock star varieties for your region are,” he adds.
Some IGCs believe they can compete
Wingard’s Market, a South Carolina IGC, co-owner Wally Steinhauser sees Lowe’s as his chief competitor.
“Lowe’s is really more of our competition, because if you look at Lowe’s, it’s designed for women and we found women make most of the decisions on everything that we sell,” he told Garden Center. “I mean, if you go in, it’s nice and soft. The lighting’s soft, the ceilings are lower, everything’s blue. It’s designed for women.”
He does not view Home Depot as going after the same customers.
“You go to Home Depot and it’s all testosterone,” he added.
Steinhauser believes that his company can differentiate with service and education.
“We blind shop the box stores, particularly Lowe’s, and our prices are not that much different than theirs. If it’s within 10%, they’re going to spend it with us. And, typically, somebody’s not going to go to a box store if they’re an experienced shopper,” he added.
As someone who has covered the retail industry for over 30 years, who once ran a large independent toy store, I tend to agree. Yes, you will sometimes educate a customer only for them to leave and make the purchase at a cheaper big box, but, in my experience, you can also build a loyal customer base that will pay a little extra.
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