Gold and silver were having a fairly quiet week until Thursday (February 12), when both precious metals experienced steep drops early in the day.
The gold price, which had been steady above US$5,000 per ounce, and even briefly breached US$5,100, tumbled by over US$100, bottoming out around US$4,900.
Meanwhile, silver sank from above US$80 per ounce to below US$75.
Market watchers have presented various reasons for these declines, with a mainstream talking point being that the precious metals were moving in line with the broader stock market.
Thursday brought declines in major US indexes as investors reportedly reacted to concerns that various industries could be negatively impacted by AI automation.
Of course, with gold and silver it’s always possible that there’s more going on beneath the surface. Many of our popular YouTube channel guests reacted to this week’s price drop on X, with some, including Willem Middelkoop and Craig Hemke, suggesting manipulation was at play.
I’ve also read that a Russian memo seen by Bloomberg may have had a dampening effect on gold — the report details proposals sent by the Kremlin that could see the country return to the US dollar settlement system as part of an economic partnership with the Trump administration.
Whatever the reason for the decrease was, gold and silver had bounced back by Friday (February 13), with silver getting back above US$77 and gold closing at the US$5,043 level.
The rebound came despite slightly cooler than expected US consumer price index data, which eased inflation concerns and boosted interest rate cut expectations from the US Federal Reserve.
Looking forward, I want to emphasize again that the broad consensus among the experts I’ve been speaking to continues to be that the run in gold and silver prices isn’t over.
However, that doesn’t mean the path will be straight up. I heard this week from Keith Weiner of Monetary Metals, who spoke about the importance of weathering volatility:
‘I mean, we’re in dollar bear market for reasons. And so people better be prepared for the volatility, because as things go off the rails, which is what’s happening to the dollar, yeah, there’s volatility. And there’s days when people can’t sell the dollar enough, and there’s days when they’re desperately, urgently trying to grab as many fistfuls of dollars as they can, and the dollar is extremely well bid — you’ll see that as the price of gold falling. So you’re going to get it both ways, but the trend is clear and the drivers are clear.’
Keith is calling for US$6,000 gold in 2026 and a silver price of US$120 by the end of the year. The US$6,000 number is in line with recent projections from BNP Paribas and CIBC, whose forecasts indicate that major banks also still see strength in gold.
Bullet briefing — Top takeover candidates
Merger talks between commodities giants Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO,NYSE:RIO,LSE:RIO) and Glencore (LSE:GLEN,OTCPL:GLCNF) have fallen through, nixing what would have been the mining industry’s biggest-ever deal, but M&A activity in the space continues to heat up.
A new survey from TD Cowen identifies IAMGOLD (TSX:IMG,NYSE:IAG) as the year’s top takeover candidate, with close to 20 percent of the 58 respondents pointing to the company.
Artemis Gold (TSXV:ARTG,OTCQX:ARGTF) was in second place at 11 percent, while Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (TSX:ASCU,OTCQX:ASCUF) was third at 7 percent.
Almost all of the respondents, who included institutional investors and mining executives, said they expect to see more gold, silver and copper M&A in 2026 compared to last year.
We’ll have to wait and see how any potential deals play out, including Barrick Mining’s (TSX:ABX,NYSE:B) planned initial public offering for its North American gold assets.
Newmont (NYSE:NEM,ASX:NEM), Barrick’s partner at the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, said it is concerned about the management of the operation, and wants to see improvements — a clash between the two miners could end up disrupting Barrick’s plans.
Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.